Europe Economics Update ECB may need more than promises to contain spreads The prospect of tighter monetary policy in the euro-zone has raised the threat of a bigger sell-off in the region’s bond markets. If this happens, we think the ECB would ultimately intervene to... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Hawks take flight at the RBI The Reserve Bank today turned even more hawkish with an unscheduled, unconventional 40bp hike that takes the repo rate to 4.40%. We had been among the early hawks on Indian monetary policy and were... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Low equilibrium rates will limit ECB policy tightening Equilibrium real interest rates in the euro-zone appear to be below zero and lower than in most other advanced economies. We expect them to stay that way. While the ECB is likely to raise interest... 3rd May 2022 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA will hike rates to 2% by year-end The RBA started hiking the cash rate today and sounded hawkish for the first since the start of the pandemic. Our forecast that interest rates will reach 2% by year-end is far above the analyst... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slashes rates and shifts its focus Russia’s central bank (CBR) cut its policy rate by another 300bp to 14.0% today and the communications suggest that the CBR is now more focused on boosting credit growth than it has been in the past... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to ignore Q1 GDP and hike regardless We doubt that the unexpected 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP will stop the Fed from hiking its policy rate by a bigger 50bp next week or from launching quantitative tightening. The Fed... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Uncandid Ingves, Norges Bank to take a breather In comparison to the excitement caused by the Riksbank’s meeting this week, the Norges Bank’s policy announcement next Thursday is likely to be a more prosaic affair. Indeed, while Governor Wolden... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Consensus may still be playing catch up Comments this week from MPC members strengthen our view that the repo rate will be hiked by 25bp (to 4.25%) in the next policy meeting in June. That view is now also shared by the consensus, which has... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike by 15bp next week Inflation is now surging in Australia and that surge is spreading well beyond the impact of soaring commodity prices. We therefore think the RBA needs to begin tightening policy. The RBA might want to... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ still likely to tweak Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan remained under pressure to defend its yield target this week and pledged on Thursday to keep buying an unlimited amount of bonds for as long as necessary. While 10-year JGB yields... 29th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to pause next week ahead of June hike We think that the Norges Bank will keep interest rates on hold, at +0.75%, next Thursday, before resuming its tightening cycle in June. We forecast one rate hike per quarter this year and next, which... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Pockets of public debt vulnerability Tighter global monetary conditions and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused public debt problems to worsen in several emerging markets, and the MENA region is not immune to this. Within the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rates heading to 3.0% as MPC focuses on inflation concerns The weakening economic outlook has deepened the dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). But we think the MPC is sufficiently worried about rising price/wage expectations to raise Bank Rate... 28th April 2022 · 8 mins read
