Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia rate hike, Saudi budget data, Egypt privatisations Tunisia’s central bank hiked interest rates this week with policymakers almost certainly having one eye on the country’s fragile external position. But we do not think that this will prevent sharp... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB, the Fed, and the euro The hawkish tone of the latest flurry of ECB and Fed speakers suggests that, despite the recent drop in equity markets and widening of credit spreads, policymakers are determined to press ahead with... 18th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Balance sheet policy set to diverge The focus of recent weeks has been on the pace and synchronisation of interest rate hikes, with almost all major central banks now engaged or set to engage in tightening cycles and many taking an... 18th May 2022 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What would tighter monetary policy mean for Japan? We don’t expect the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy meaningfully but, with inflation about to breach 2%, what if we are wrong? The direct impact of higher interest rates on the corporate... 18th May 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Can the economy handle interest rates of 3%? We estimate that a rise in Bank Rate from 0.10% last November to a peak of 3.00% would mean that GDP is around 2.0% lower than if Bank Rate had stayed at 0.10%. That is a smaller drag than the Bank of... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Case for rate hikes much stronger than in 2011 The ECB’s rate hikes in 2011 were a mistake, not just because they exacerbated the widening in peripheral bond spreads. Underlying inflation was subdued and policymakers were too concerned with acting... 16th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hikes, hikes, hikes The hawkish tilt by Mexico ’s central bank at its meeting yesterday, when it raised its raised its policy rate by 50bp (to 7.00%), suggests that Banxico may soon shift its tightening cycle into a... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading? Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB more hawkish as investors rein in rate hike bets The ECB’s hawkish conversion appears to be all but complete, with more officials this week joining the ranks of those calling for rates to rise in July and expressing a clear desire to get the deposit... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
