Asia Economics Update Dovish Bank Indonesia in no hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged today and the dovish tone from the press conference suggests the central bank is in no rush to tighten policy. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update Weakening economy will not do central banks’ job for them The cost of living squeeze will push net energy importers including the euro-zone and UK close to, or into, recession. While this will have some disinflationary effects in the medium-term, we doubt... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and... 20th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary tightening, ruble strength, Bulgaria support Officials in Hungary sought this week to reassure investors that they will tackle inflation and mounting macro imbalances. Tighter policy is needed, which underpins our below-consensus growth... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Heatwave damage, MPC minutes, WPI surge The government’s decision to restrict exports of wheat following heavy damage to crops from the heatwave will have limited impact on the trade balance and inflation. The bigger worry is that the... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Historical experience highlights recession risks History suggests that the surge in energy prices over the past year means there is a good chance that the euro-zone will suffer a recession in 2022. It also suggests that it will be tricky for the ECB... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update A helping hand for the housing market Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update End of negative rates is nigh! The account of the ECB’s April meeting shows that a lot of policymakers thought the criteria for rate hikes had already been met. Since then, the case for rate hikes has only strengthened. While not... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
