Europe Chart Pack Tailwinds fading, headwinds building With some important exceptions, including the German manufacturing sector, economic activity seems to have held up a little better than we had feared so far in Q2. We don’t think this will last. The... 7th June 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank risks sending housing into a tailspin The Bank of Canada’s recent communications suggest that it will be unfazed by the second consecutive double-digit drop in home sales in May. This raises the chance of the Bank enacting a larger... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think a hawkish RBA will continue to support the AUD Although we doubt it will appreciate much against the US dollar, we expect the Australian dollar to continue to hold up well relative to most other G10 currencies. 7th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rates to rise to 3% by early-2023 The 50bp hike in the cash rate today is consistent with our view that interest rates will peak at higher levels than most anticipate and we’re expecting additional 50bp hikes in July and August. 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50, 75…100 bp? Following its second 50 bp policy rate hike, the Bank of Canada hinted that it will consider an even larger move next month. With CPI inflation heading to 7.5% this month due to the renewed surge in... 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Resilient economy reinforces case for frontloading GDP data for Q1 released this week showed that the economy weathered the Omicron wave pretty well, and the timelier data suggest a solid performance so far in Q2. That said, there were also further... 3rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT to stay on the sidelines, Korea inflation concerns Despite above-target inflation, we expect the Bank of Thailand to leave interest rates unchanged, not only at its meeting on Wednesday, but throughout 2022, as it prioritises supporting the economic... 2nd June 2022 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to frontload monetary tightening We think the MPC will follow its off-cycle rate hike last month with a 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Wednesday 8 th June. Beyond next week, the... 2nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Quantitative tightening and the market sell-off Investors have greeted the official start of the Fed’s “quantitative tightening” policy with a renewed sell-off across equity and bond markets. That is probably coincidence not causation, but we think... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to confirm July take-off Members of the ECB Governing Council are unanimous in believing that interest rates should be raised but divided over how quickly. We expect them to confirm next Thursday that the Bank will end net... 1st June 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes rates by 50bp again and hints at even more The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rate by another 50bp, to 1.5%, today and, after warning that "the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen", closed the accompanying statement with... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Policymakers will turn to financial repression Policy tightening by the RBI is putting public finances stretched by the pandemic under further strain. While an increase in debt financing costs is inevitable, we expect the government and RBI to... 1st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can the world cope with higher interest rates? We expect the most aggressive policy tightening cycle in decades to cause a slowdown in global economic growth, not a severe downturn. The biggest risk is that inflation stays higher for much longer... 1st June 2022 · 27 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Annual money growth is slowing sharply and, given rapidly rising interest rates, wealth losses and QT, that slowdown has a lot further to run. The growth rate of bank loans is accelerating, however... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
