India Economics Weekly Market turmoil tests RBI’s appetite for FX intervention Although the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar this week amid a broad-based sell-off in global financial markets, it held up better than most other EM currencies. That’s probably down... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions on a momentous week in central banking We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss recent developments in central banking and related financial market implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update A reprieve for Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan gave no ground at all to bond traders today as it left all its major policy settings unchanged. Governor Kuroda was resolute in claiming that Yield Curve Control has no limits in his... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to slump by 20% The Bank of Canada’s hawkishness, a widening of mortgage spreads, and news that at least one lender is restricting new loan applications suggest the outlook for house prices is worse than we... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to step up pace of tightening next week We expect the Norges Bank to step up the pace of tightening at its policy meeting next Thursday (23 rd June) with a 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, and to indicate that it will probably raise interest rates... 16th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish CBs may cause equities to trough later than bonds The willingness of major central banks in developed markets to tighten policy further and/or faster to best inflation has resulted in substantial weakness in equities over the past week or so... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics BoE falling behind the Fed, but hints it may speed up By raising interest rates by 25bps (basis points) today, from 1.00% to 1.25%, rather than by 50bps or the 75bps the Fed announced last night, we think the Bank of England is putting too much weight on... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today raised interest rates by 12.5bp (to 1.50%) and appeared to indicate that rates would be raised further this year due to concerns about rising inflation. But we think the... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB steals a march on the ECB After the excitement of yesterday’s ECB emergency meeting and 75bp hike by the US Fed, the SNB kept its end up by unexpectedly raising its policy rate by 50bps this morning – its first rate rise since... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation & fiscal risks pushing Copom to tighten further While the Brazilian central bank’s tightening cycle is drawing to a close, the statement accompanying yesterday’s 50bp increase in the Selic rate (to 13.25%) left the door open to additional hikes... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed steps up tightening amid worsening inflation The Fed’s larger 75bp rate hike came as little surprise to the markets following the worse than expected May CPI data and Monday’s tip-off in the Wall Street Journal. Our view that inflation will... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak Q2 may be a sign of things to come Global economic activity might have contracted slightly in Q2, which would be the weakest outcome in recent history aside from the height of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. Part of the... 15th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pressure is on for ECB spread-fighting tool in July The ECB’s press release following its unscheduled meeting fell short of announcing a fleshed out spread-fighting tool that could provide a permanent solution to the problem. Flexible PEPP... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
