Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed refuses to blink, as growth fears mount Chair Jerome Powell signalled this week that the Fed will press ahead with its planned series of aggressive interest rate hikes, even as evidence mounts that economic growth will be weak in the second... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US recession fears won’t deter ECB Fears about a possible US recession have prompted investors to revise their ECB interest rate expectations down this week, but we have pushed ours up to show the deposit rate peaking at 2%. While next... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Don’t bet against a 50bp Norges Bank hike in August The Norges Bank intends to follow this week’s 50bp interest rate hike with a 25bp rate rise in August, but the combination of strong global inflation pressures, an incredibly tight labour market in... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s tightening cycle shifts up a gear The Mexican central bank’s shift to a 75bp interest rate hike yesterday (to 7.75%) and the hawkish language in the accompanying statement make another 75bp move at the next meeting in August a done... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More 50bp hikes coming We agree with RBA governor Phillip Lowe that market pricing for the Cash rate looks too aggressive. But we also think the consensus is still too dovish. After all, Governor Lowe is starting to grow... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022) While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom: revisiting the 2015-16 playbook The latest Brazilian central bank communications give a strong signal that, when Copom stops hiking interest rates, it will act in a similar way to the end of the last tightening cycle in 2015. The... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to join the “50bp crowd” next week Having begun its tightening cycle in April, we expect the Riksbank to join the trend by raising its policy interest rate by 50bps, to 0.75%, next week. 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: knock knock, anybody there? High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00%... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means BI is in little hurry to raise rates Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged again today, and the relative weakness of inflation means any tightening cycle is unlikely to be aggressive. We are maintaining our view the central bank... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
