Japan Economics Update Widening of tolerance band not off the table yet The Bank of Japan didn’t concede any ground to bond traders today but we still think there’s a good chance that it will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year yield target. 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a renewed rise in Gilt yields before long The release of strong UK labour market and inflation figures this week, coupled with the growing likelihood that the next Conservative Party leader will loosen fiscal policy, strengthen our conviction... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in inflation in South Africa to 7.4% y/y in June keeps a 75bp interest rate hike on the table at the SARB’s meeting tomorrow. But with policymakers clearly concerned about the weakness of the... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) There are some encouraging signs that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease. But as it is being replaced by stronger upward pressure from domestic factors... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What to expect from the monetary policy review We doubt that the upcoming review of Australia’s monetary policy framework will result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house prices... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation fight in centre stage at CBN The Central Bank of Nigeria followed up May’s 150bp interest rate hike with a 100bp increase in the benchmark rate today, to 14.00%, as worries about inflation continued to mount. We now expect a 50bp... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Global backdrop lays bare EM vulnerabilities Most large EMs are weathering the environment of rising global interest rates and a strong dollar relatively well. That said, countries with large current account deficits, most notably Chile and... 18th July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
