Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark to seek wider rate differential with the ECB The strictures of Denmark’s exchange rate peg means that the Nationalbank will follow the ECB’s lead as it hike rates further over the coming months. But with the krone remaining towards the “strong”... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Remittances to take edge off current account concerns Data released this week showed that remittances flows into India dwarfed those to elsewhere in the world last year, helping India to maintain a small current account deficit and supporting the... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) Spending on travel and leisure is supporting activity and has so far prevented the UK composite flash PMI from joining the euro-zone’s PMI in contraction territory. Perhaps even more encouraging was... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls, encouraging signs in Sri Lanka (finally) We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook this week, contain our detailed forecasts. In this Weekly, we outline three key calls from the report. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s new president... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone is teetering on the brink of recession due to slumping demand and rising costs while inflationary pressures remain intense. The ECB will have to follow up... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly New Covid wave, more balanced inflation outlook The government so far hasn’t responded to the surge in new virus cases to a record high with any restrictions, but the slowdown in mobility suggests that consumer spending will soften regardless... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
Capital Daily Lagarde snatches defeat from the jaws of victory Despite the ECB’s attempt at a hawkish policy shift and to shore up euro-zone periphery sovereign bond markets, we doubt the worst is over for euro-zone financial markets. 21st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB embarks on treacherous rate hike cycle The ECB’s 50bp rate hike today is likely to be the first move in a sustained interest rate hiking cycle which we think will bring the deposit rate to around 2% next year. We also think the Bank will... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB slams on the monetary policy brakes South Africa’s central bank upped the pace of tightening further with a 75bp hike, to 5.50%, as policymakers’ intensifying fears about inflation (and inflation expectations) trumped any concerns about... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Commodities boost unwinding High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
India Chart Pack Demographics to remain an important growth driver The latest population projections released by the UN this month show that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023 (see Chart 1), a touch earlier than previously expected... 21st July 2022 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil fuelling a gulf in growth The spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence in the region’s outlook. Higher oil output and looser policy will drive above-consensus GDP growth in the Gulf this year and next... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do rising bond yields mean for EM public debt? The rise in local currency bond yields across the emerging world poses a particular risk to fiscal positions in those EMs with large government financing needs and a short average debt maturity. Egypt... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish BI leaves rates on hold, gradual tightening ahead Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged again today, and the dovish commentary from the press conference means we are pushing back the timing for the first hike from Q3 into Q4. With growth... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
