Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done? 1736431200 Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, but the accompanying communications struck a slightly more dovish tone and we think that it will be in a position to cut... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (December) Data for Germany and Spain suggest euro-zone inflation was higher than expected in December. However, we still think that inflation is likely to undershoot the ECB’s forecasts later this year causing... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Turkey last month, to 44.4%, points towards another 250bp interest rate cut, to 45.0%, at the next central bank meeting on 23rd January. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia December PMIs, Korea Trade, Singapore GDP The December PMIs for Asia were a mixed bag, but we continue to expect manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region to remain subdued in the near term. With growth set to struggle and inflation... 2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian house price growth to remain weak in 2025 There was little festive cheer in Australia’s housing market last month, with house prices stagnating across the country’s eight capital cities. Given our view that the RBA has only limited room to... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than... 23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s stance on Ukraine, all eyes on the CBRT A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have... 20th December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s market meltdown Heavy FX intervention, hawkish noises from central bankers and the approval by congress of spending cuts in the past 24 hours appear to have (just about) pulled Brazil out of the throes of a currency... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025 We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
