Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stick to 50bp hikes While the labour market has surprised to the upside, inflation is moving broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. We therefore expect the Bank to keep hiking rates by 50bp in August, September... 27th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems come to the fore Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth... 26th July 2022 · 24 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Growth to slow in the second half of the year GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This... 26th July 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2022) The drop in inflation in Brazil to 11.4% y/y in the first half of July provides the first clear sign that inflation has passed its peak and is now on a downwards path. But even so, with the headline... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy suffer a repeat of 2018? Italy’s next government is unlikely to bring the country’s future in the euro-zone into doubt, in a repeat of the turmoil that we saw after the 2018 election. But it will probably run looser fiscal... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose by a bit more than we anticipated in May, but the preliminary estimate implies that most of the gain in sales volumes was reversed in June and the slump in consumer confidence... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Limits to ECB’s “unlimited” tool will soon be tested The ECB new spread-fighting tool received this week a lukewarm welcome from investors, despite its potential for unlimited asset purchases. That reflects both the ambiguity surrounding the criteria... 22nd July 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt risks and IMF deals, hawks gain ground Recently approved IMF financing will ease near-term balance of payment pressures in Tanzania and Kenya, but the Fund’s push to tighten fiscal policy will weigh on recoveries. Meanwhile, this week’s... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
