Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t widen tolerance band any further Long-term bond yields have dropped back in recent weeks which meant that the Bank of Japan had to work less hard to defend its 10-year yield target. Given that we no longer expect US 10-year Treasury... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This is (probably) not the Powell pivot markets are looking for Financial markets have taken the combination of yesterday’s FOMC’s announcement and today’s negative US GDP print as confirmation that policymakers will ease off their aggressive monetary tightening... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Egypt and the IMF, Fed decision Next week’s OPEC+ meeting may provide the first hints of the group’s production policy beyond September and if, as we expect, it opts to remove quotas, the Gulf stands to benefit most. Elsewhere, the... 28th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Stepping up the fight We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to step up its fight against high inflation at its meeting on Thursday 4 th August by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), from 1.25% to 1.75%... 28th July 2022 · 9 mins read
RBI Watch Frontloaded tightening to continue We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.40%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on 5 th August. Beyond next week, we think the... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to shift to smaller hikes in September The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by a further 75bp to 2.25%-2.50% takes them close to their “neutral” level. With inflation set to fall and mounting signs of economic weakness, we suspect... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s economic woes mount For a major net oil exporter, Nigeria’s worsening economic struggles in the current high oil price environment are striking. Low oil production, which was 30% below the country’s OPEC+ quota in June... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily For EM financial markets, bad news is just bad news We expect weak global growth to keep the pressure on EM sovereign bonds over the rest of 2022, and think that most EM currencies will weaken against the US dollar over this period. 27th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Slowdown underway Latin American economies held up well in early part of this year, helped by the surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine. But there are signs that activity is now weakening... 27th July 2022 · 12 mins read
