UK Economics Focus

The post-election UK economic landscape

The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain...

12th September 2024 · 14 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB Policy Announcement (September 2024)

There was never any doubt that the ECB would cut its deposit rate by 25bp today, to 3.5%. Otherwise, the policy statement is largely as expected and does not change our view that the ECB will probably...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The slight rise in India’s headline CPI inflation in August reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a bit of caution and keep rates unchanged in its next meeting in October. But it...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest hard data and survey indicators point to a slowdown in both manufacturing...

12th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs

The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Bank will deliver final rate hike in October

The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its September meeting and will probably keep describing financial markets as unstable. However, recent data should have strengthened the Bank’s...

12th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Fed Watch

Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut

With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC...

11th September 2024 · 9 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2024)

Brazil’s headline inflation dropped back to 4.2% y/y in August, but there was yet another increase in underlying services inflation which sets the stage for an interest rate hike at next week’s policy...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation strengthened from 25.7% y/y in July to 26.2% y/y in August, breaking a five month streak of decelerating inflation, after electricity and fuel price hikes. We expect...

10th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

A few thoughts on the “Fed Put” & markets

Further mixed-to-weak US economic data and sharp falls in the equity markets last week means that, rightly or wrongly, the so-called “Fed put” is now back in the spotlight. Our sense is that it would...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in August, alongside the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week, mean that Banxico is on track to lower its policy rate...

9th September 2024 · 2 mins read