Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 25.5% y/y in November to 24.1% y/y in December, its slowest pace in two years. With earlier falls in the pound falling out of the annual price comparison... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed worried by potential impact of Trump policy agenda After Chair Jerome Powell made a big fuss about claiming in last November’s press conference that the Fed wouldn’t speculate about what policies the incoming Trump administration will adopt, the... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: interest rates heading down in 2025 We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still... 8th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (December 2024) The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Recent strength in the Korean won could fade further Although the Korean won has strengthened this year, we think its rally will unwind before long. 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Nov. 24) 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done? 1736431200 Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized
