Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya-IMF disagreement, SARB’s uncertainty worries Kenya and the IMF abandoned talks over the ninth review of the country’s existing financing programs this week and, while a new deal may replace it, we think public debt concerns are likely to build... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Petro’s finance minister #4, new macro forecasts The replacement of Colombia’s finance minister with a close ally of President Petro reinforces our concerns that fiscal policy won't be tightened sufficiently to stop the public debt ratio from rising... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: dovish central bank as political turmoil continues The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes highlight growing concern over the economy. Given the deteriorating outlook, we expect the BoK to cut rates by a further 75bps this year, a more dovish stance than... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff front-running will be followed by export slump The recent strength in export volumes seems to reflect efforts to front-run US tariffs. While that is providing a boost to activity now, it will only magnify the hit to exports once those tariffs are... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
