UK Economics Rapid Response Policy Response to Plunging Pound (26th Sep.) The further fall in the pound in early trading means that we’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative. There are a couple of ways it could... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks won’t flinch at weak PMIs Another month, another batch of PMIs pointing to Q3 GDP having fallen in major advanced economies. Yet despite the deterioration in real activity, as well as some further signs that pipeline price... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed forces the Bank to do more The hawkish message from the Federal Reserve this week has prompted us to revise up our forecast for the peak policy rate in Canada to 4.0%, even as the latest data suggest that inflationary pressures... 23rd September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed resolute in battle to slay the inflationary dragon The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall more slowly in Europe than in the US There has been growing evidence that pipeline price pressures have eased, underlining our view that inflation will fall sharply next year. Commodity prices and shipping costs have fallen, product... 23rd September 2022 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to raise rates further, and perhaps faster We revised up our forecasts for the ECB’s key policy rate this week, and now see it peaking at 3% next year rather than 2%. Moreover, we think there is a growing chance of a 100bp rate hike next month... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly A trio of hawkish central banks In what has proven to be an action-packed week for major central banks, those in the Nordics and the SNB kept their end up and delivered historically large rate rises. And despite the surveys... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US Treasuries With the Fed still clearly in a hawkish mood, we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. We now expect it to be around its current level at the end of this year, in contrast with... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen line drawn at 145, BoJ to defend YCC settings While it is uncertain whether policymakers will be able to hold the 145 line in the sand they have drawn for the yen with their intervention on Thursday, we think the Bank of Japan will be able to... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserves remain more than adequate The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning point for inflation has been reached While the exchange rate has only played a minor role in the surge in “core” goods inflation to a record-high, the further depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month will tilt the... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s policymakers have bought the yen some time We think FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), if sustained, will be enough to prevent much further depreciation in the yen against the dollar until downward pressure from widening... 22nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
