US Economics Weekly

Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle

The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates

The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here

While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

October cut possible, but December still more likely

Post-meeting comments by ECB policymakers suggest that the bar for another rate cut in October is high, with December the most likely option. Meanwhile, the ECB’s new GDP projections still look too...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB to cut, oil prices slump

The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

BoE Watch

Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year

We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes

Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for...

13th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting

We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan sticking to hawkish script

Import price inflation slowed sharply in August and if the yen continues to strengthen, it may turn negative as soon as September. That may prompt the Bank of Japan to judge near-term risks to...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

FX Markets Update

RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar

We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Focus

Rate cuts and asset returns

This Focus explores the key lessons from previous Fed easing cycles and explains how these inform our latest financial market forecasts. In short, history supports our call that 10-year Treasury...

12th September 2024 · 18 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit

Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now...

12th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Inflation keeps falling more quickly than Norges Bank’s forecasts but policymakers will be uneasy about the renewed weakening of the krone. We expect them to repeat that the policy rate will be...

12th September 2024 · 2 mins read