Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022) Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most... 26th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 25th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack All eyes on Brazil Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to decide who’ll become the country’s next president in a heated run-off election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival Lula. Lula is still... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today and we expect that the central bank will continue to use its new “market stabilisation tools” to keep short-term interest rates high and... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: more hikes likely as dong pressure intensifies Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) hiked its main policy rate by a further 100bp (to 6.0%) yesterday at an unscheduled meeting as it attempted to support the currency. With the dong likely to remain under... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slowdown to prompt early end to tightening cycle Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policy rate heading toward 5% The data released this week showed that higher interest rates are yet to have much of a negative impact on construction or consumption and that core inflation is proving stickier than anticipated... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister Liz Truss falls, political risk premium remains We do not yet know which of the three PM hopefuls (Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt who have attracted early backing from Conservative MPs) will replace Liz Truss. Whoever is PM, we think a... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi out, Meloni in; new EZ forecasts We published our latest quarterly Euro-zone Economic Outlook this week, with the main message being that we now expect the euro-zone to experience an even more extreme case of stagflation. Otherwise... 21st October 2022 · 12 mins read
Climate Economics Update Europe’s renewables push to stoke “greenflation” Although the energy crisis in Europe has dealt a blow to the EU’s near-term green ambitions, a combination of economic incentives, NextGenEU funding, and geopolitical expediency will cause the bloc to... 21st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA prepares investors for a lengthy tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled this week that its decision to slow the pace of tightening at its latest meeting doesn't mean that the tightening cycle will be over soon. Meanwhile, Treasurer... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Strong case for 100bp rate hike The ECB is certain to opt for another bumper rate hike next week and, on balance, we think that policymakers are most likely to go for 100bp. A hike of that size will probably be a one-off as they... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
