Africa Economic Outlook Region’s vulnerabilities crystallising The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update More flexible guidelines not enough for BoJ tightening A mooted adjustment to the joint statement between the Bank of Japan and the government has been widely interpreted as a step towards the withdrawal of ultra-loose policy. However, the policy... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more After rising sharply after Thursday’s ECB meeting, we think the 10-year BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more in the coming months. But we don’t think that the recent divergence between 10-year... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets not waiting for Fed to catch up with reality Despite the Fed’s continued hawkishness, the further softening in core inflation and weakness of the early activity data in November leave us more convinced that the FOMC will be cutting interest... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s EU fund deal, further dovish tilt at the CNB? The EU’s approval of Hungary’s COVID-19 recovery plan this week is a welcome development for Hungary’s economy and financial markets, but it won’t immediately transform the near-term outlook. 16th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks unfinished in their battle with inflation Rate hikes were announced by many central banks this week, including the SNB and Norges Bank which raised rates by 50bp and 25bp respectively. However, inflation forecasts issued by the central banks... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, survey rebound continues Thursday’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Bank is a long way away from pivoting to looser policy. And the strong inflation print in November and rebound in activity surveys in December are only likely... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2023 – Key themes and possible surprises The three main economic themes of 2023 will be falling inflation, peaking interest rates and a recession. Together they add up to a tough year. Things would be much tougher if inflation surprised... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More stringent price cap still not a disaster The proposed price caps for natural gas are more stringent than we had thought because the government intends to regulate prices for the foreseeable future. However, we still think that the impact on... 16th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update 2023: Recession, disinflation – and eventually recovery Our 2023 prognosis may be a gloomy one, but there are reasons to expect conditions to brighten a bit by year-end. 15th December 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank eases off the brakes, but may not halt hikes until 4.50% The Bank of England followed the Fed by slowing the pace of interest rate hikes from 75 basis points (bps) in November to 50bps hike today as widely expected, which took rates from 3.00% to 3.50%. But... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
