Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN back in hawkish mode… for now The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 17.50%, today in a surprisingly aggressive decision. But with incoming data likely to add to evidence of easing price pressures... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further tightening on the cards Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) raised its policy rate today by a further 100bps (to 17.0%), and we expect more tightening over the coming months amid concerns about high inflation and the worsening... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Rise of fixed-rate loans makes ECB’s job harder The shift away from variable towards fixed-rate mortgages in many European countries over the past 15 years means that it will take longer than in the past for interest rate hikes by the ECB to feed... 23rd January 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation revisions won’t change Bank’s thinking The CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation will be revised up next month but that does not change our view that they will fall sharply over the first half of this year. We think the 25 bp... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year yield ceiling will be tested again soon 10-year JGB yields have traded well within the 50bp tolerance band since the BoJ maintained its policy settings on Wednesday. Even so, we still expect the Bank to jettison Yield Curve Control in April... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
