ECB Watch We think peak deposit rate now likely to be 3½% With a 50bp rate hike at next week’s ECB meeting seemingly a done deal, the main point of interest next week will be any messaging about how much further rates will rise beyond that. We now think that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2 nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Central banks contemplate climate mission creep Climate change was front and centre of the discussions earlier this month when a host of heavy-hitters from the world of central banking descended on Stockholm for an International Symposium on... 26th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Sharp falls in inflation ahead, policymakers turn dovish Inflation looks to have peaked across Emerging Asia, and is likely to fall back more sharply than most analysts expect over the coming year as fuel price inflation drops, the disruption from the... 26th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Disappointing earnings may weigh further on the US stock market Today’s pullback in the US stock market fits with our view that it remains vulnerable in the coming months to a downgrading of expectations for corporate profits ahead of a mild recession. 25th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed getting close to peak in rates We expect the Fed to downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, taking the fed funds rate to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but there could be one last hawkish sting in the tail. We expect... 25th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: tightening cycle not over yet The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.50%), and hinted that more rate hikes were likely in the near term amid worries about rising underlying price pressures. We... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t fret about QE losses The losses which central banks are now incurring on the bonds they bought via their quantitative easing (QE) programmes are not a big cause for concern. These losses will not compromise central banks’... 25th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: Rates likely to stay unchanged in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) kept interest rates unchanged today, and we expect it to leave rates on hold for the rest of the year as it aims to strike a fine balance between supporting a... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: More evidence of divergence across DMs The flash PMIs for January provide further evidence that the euro-zone economy has so far avoided the deep downturn that most economists anticipated, whereas the US and UK surveys still point to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2023 1675353600 As 2023’s calendar of central bank meetings began, we held a special briefing on the first Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England policy decisions of the year.
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
