Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: benefits of a weaker currency emerging The further falls in the Egyptian pound over the past month will push up inflation and prompt the central bank to deliver more monetary tightening, but there are already signs that the benefits of a... 31st January 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined. As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not done tightening yet The incoming data do not warrant a pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle and we expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. However, with inflation set to come off the boil, we forecast... 31st January 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Fed paying foreign banks & money market funds It’s well known that, with the yield curve inverting the Fed is now racking up losses, but what is less appreciated is that the higher interest payments it is making are going mostly to foreign banks... 30th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Region set for a slowdown despite China’s re-opening The outlook for Latin America has turned more positive at the start of the year as China has shifted away from its zero-Covid policy and commodity prices have rallied. But this comes against a... 30th January 2023 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack Consumers reopen their wallets The Lunar New Year holiday wasn’t quite back to normal this year as fears of spreading COVID to elderly relatives prevented many households from returning to their hometowns – long-distance journeys... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Currency rebound provides welcome relief to policymakers Asian currencies have continued to rebound against the US dollar over the past month, and most are now up by around 5-15% against the greenback since early November. Optimism around China’s reopening... 30th January 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upstream price pressures are turning Stronger-than-expected consumer price inflation data from Australia this week underlined the pressure the RBA is still under. But there is also growing evidence that upstream price pressures are... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Easing labour shortages support Bank’s pause Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Wednesday that the pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle is conditional on looser conditions in the labour market and a fall in inflation expectations. The... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation pressures easing, but too soon to sound the all clear The data this week provided further signs that goods pipeline pressures are easing. More importantly, we’re starting to see the first concrete signs of an easing in services pipeline pressures. But... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 1675350000 China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
Asia Economics Update Answers to your questions on the outlook for Em Asia We held a Drop-In today to discuss the big economic and financial market development across Emerging Asia. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn’t... 26th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding tilts SARB’s focus towards growth The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) smaller-than-expected 25bp interest rate hike today and large cuts to its growth forecast make clear that its focus is pivoting to concerns about activity... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
