Latin America Economics Update Lula’s hopes for a higher inflation target would backfire The suggestion by Brazil’s President Lula that the central bank’s inflation target should be raised is likely to be a bigger concern for the second half of his presidential term (2025-26) than the... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates close to their peak, but cuts are far away While raising rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 3.50% to 4.00%, the Bank of England implied that rates are very close to their peak. We still think that rates may rise to 4.50%, but perhaps... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 2nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Feb.) 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank getting terminal With inflation and price pressures still high, the Riksbank will probably raise interest rates by 50bp next week. However, in contrast to the market, we think this will probably end the tightening... 2nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch MPC to signal the end of tightening cycle With inflation now having clearly passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we think the MPC will mark the end of the tightening cycle with a final 25bp hike to the repo rate (to... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom casts doubt on 2023 rate cuts The statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, hinted that interest rates may need to stay at their current high level into next... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still looking for a “couple” more hikes As expected following a blitz of speeches by officials ahead of the blackout window, the Fed raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to between 4.50% and 4.75%, but tempered any hopes of a major... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s rapid wage growth flying under the radar The slowdown that we expect in Brazil’s economy should take some steam out of the labour market, but it looks like it won’t be enough to stop wages from rising at a rapid pace. This appears to be a... 1st February 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: end of tightening cycle approaching The minutes to the Colombian central bank meeting last Friday revealed that worries about the growth outlook will bring the tightening cycle to a close soon. We expect the central bank to deliver one... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The next phases for interest rates and the BoE’s possible guidance With interest rates nearing a peak, the next two phases of monetary policy will most probably be rates being held at that peak and then being cut. The Bank of England may soon provide some guidance on... 1st February 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.) January’s drop in headline inflation should be taken with a pinch of salt because a “data processing problem” meant that the data for Germany had to be estimated and might therefore be unreliable. In... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Monetary policy has lost some of its potency The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages has meant that it was always going to take longer than in past tightening cycles for the rise in interest rates to feed through to the real... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
