India Economics Update RBI unlikely to tighten policy any further The RBI further slowed the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.50%) today and, though it has left the door ajar for further tightening, the softer growth outlook and... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA signals more tightening to come The RBA raised interest rates by another 25bp and signalled that further tightening will be needed. We’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to an above-consensus 3.85% by... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 22) 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly The opposite of stagflation The strength of the early January data appears to rule out the possibility of an imminent recession, but that won’t prevent inflation from continuing to fall sharply from here. 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weak survey data, inflation concerns, rate forecasts The batch of survey data for January released this made for pretty depressing reading and reinforces our view that, despite the boost from commodities, regional growth will slow sharply this year... 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data needs to beat BoE’s forecasts for further rate hikes This week the Bank of England implied that Bank Rate is at or very close to its peak, and for further rate hikes to happen there needs to be evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures than it... 3rd February 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some more thoughts on the ECB meeting While yesterday’s ECB meeting triggered some big moves in financial markets, we think it does not fundamentally alter the outlook for monetary policy. We are still expecting persistently high core... 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea turns dovish as downturn worsens Despite the jump in inflation last month, the worsening activity data means the Bank of Korea is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its February meeting. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Property slump push Swedish inflation down The fact that Sweden’s inflation rate rose more than expected in November and December is a key reason why we expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 50bp next week. Looking further ahead, however, we... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A temporary pause in Egypt’s tightening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprisingly left interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting but, with inflation likely to rise even further above the central bank’s target, we still think... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB may pivot soon The hawkish tone struck by the Czech National Bank (CNB) as it left its policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that rates will be cut around the middle of... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate still set to reach 3.5% Whereas the Bank of England and (arguably) the Fed delivered dovish surprises over the past twenty four hours, we think the ECB decision did not amount to a clear change of policy stance. The ECB is... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
