Japan Rapid Response New BoJ Governor has yet to come out as hawk or dove, but YCC may end either way 10th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank delivered a larger-than-expected 50bp interest rate hike, to 11.00%, today most probably because the recent uptick in services inflation spooked the Board. Another rate hike... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high-beta DM currencies face near-term headwinds We expect “high-beta” developed market currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged up to 7.9% y/y in January, setting the scene for Banxico to raise interest rates by 25bp, to 10.75%, later today. We think that this will mark the end of the... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Governor Thedéen puts his foot on the brakes The Riksbank’s 50bp rate hike today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds and the emphasis on the exchange rate were a surprise. Possibly this simply reflects the... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Meeting (February 2023) 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations (Jan 25) 8th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily EM LC bond yields will probably fall a bit further by end-2023 We think emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will generally fall a bit further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula and the threat to the BCB’s independence Brazil’s president Lula seems to be on the warpath in his quest for lower interest rates and now has the central bank’s (BCB’s) independence in his sights. Were Lula to get his way, the experience... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) 8th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch What to make of the latest forward guidance Now that inflation has passed its peak and many central banks have begun to slow the pace of policy tightening, markets are back to scouring their communications for evidence of what’s to come. So far... 8th February 2023 · 14 mins read
