Canada Economics Weekly Bank still in wait-and-see mode Governor Tiff Macklem reiterated this week that the Bank of Canada wants time to assess the impact of high interest rates, suggesting it will not respond to the strength of employment by immediately... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation easing, but labour market still tight The easing in core services inflation suggests that interest rates won't rise much further, perhaps from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.25% or 4.50%. But we suspect the Bank of England will need to see more... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation jump may be less worrying than it seems The January CPI data released this week made for uncomfortable reading, but may be less worrying than they first appear. A bottom-up look at the components of the food basket suggest that the rate of... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tight monetary policy despite peak inflation Inflation across most of Latin America has peaked, but this is mainly an energy story – core price pressures are proving much more persistent. And underlying price pressures are likely to ease only... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recessions postponed, not cancelled A raft of strong data out of the US have poured cold water on the idea that its economy has tumbled into recession at the start of 2023. And this comes after GDP data revealed that the euro-zone and... 16th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: tightening cycle not over yet The central bank of the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by a further 50bps (to 6.00%) and increased its inflation forecast for this year significantly. We are revising our interest rate... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia: No more rate hikes this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%), and signalled that further rate increases this year were unlikely. This supports our view that the tightening cycle has now... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in services... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack YCC still set to end with Ueda at the helm The government formally nominated Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor at yesterday’s Diet session. Since the initial announcement of his candidature last Friday, analysts and investors have... 15th February 2023 · 11 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will press ahead with another 75bp hike The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ had anticipated. While we still expect the Bank to press ahead with the 75bp hike it signalled in November at the upcoming meeting on 22 nd... 15th February 2023 · 7 mins read
