US Economics Weekly Financial risks could spoil Powell's hawkish plans Despite the strength of payrolls last month, the rest of February's labour market data was more mixed - with the unemployment rate rebounding and a smaller monthly gain in average hourly earnings. The... 10th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Could Copom cut (soon)? Chile’s tax reform We think that investors in Brazil are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate cuts as early as Q2. Despite February’s fall in inflation, core price pressures are still uncomfortably strong... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession or not, economy is set to suffer The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy stalled in Q4 last year and also revealed that domestic demand fell off a cliff. Data published so far this year point to continued... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT forecast change, welcome progress in Sri Lanka Inflation in Thailand is falling sharply and is likely to drop back to the central bank’s 1-3% target by May. With the economy struggling, we are taking out the rate hike we originally had pencilled... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Bank loan growth jumped to a 14-month high in February. And broad credit growth accelerated for the first time since September. This rebound should continue in the near-term thanks to a reopening... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will probably end Yield Curve Control in April The Bank of Japan didn’t make any policy changes at Governor Kuroda’s last meeting today but we expect incoming Governor Ueda to abandon Yield Curve Control in April. 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control set to end in April The Bank of Japan didn’t alter policy settings at today’s meeting. With economic activity set to disappoint the Bank’s overly optimistic forecasts and wage growth slowing again, the case for... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexico’s headline inflation rated edged down to 7.6% y/y in February but the further pick-up in services inflation will continue to worry policymakers at Banxico. We think that the tightening cycle... 9th March 2023 · 2 mins read
