Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Will financial stability needs supplant inflation goal? The Fed has a very difficult policy decision to make at next week’s FOMC meeting – should it hold interest rates unchanged in the wake of the SVB collapse to shore up market confidence or, with core... 15th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut to support struggling economy Vietnam’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates late yesterday as it aims to support the struggling economy which has been hit hard by the downturn in global demand and problems in the... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage-price disinflation spiral looms This year’s Shunto should result in the strongest negotiated pay hikes in decades. But the average Japanese employee will have little to rejoice in. Weaker corporate profits as well as a likely... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Three scenarios for how the SVB fallout will evolve Given the large amount of uncertainty about how the fallout from SVB’s collapse will evolve, we have grouped possible outcomes into three broadbrush scenarios. Only in the worst scenario of financial... 14th March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The 0.5% m/m rise in core consumer prices last month adds to the evidence that inflation remains stubbornly high, but the ongoing fallout from the SVB crisis over the coming days is still likely to... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What the SVB collapse means for the Fed Even if the collapse of several mid-tier banks doesn’t develop into a full-blown systemic crisis, it will more than likely trigger a credit crunch. That raises the risk that the economy will suffer a... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions and answers about SVB This Global Economics Update answers 5 key questions about the fallout from SVB’s collapse. While the situation remains in flux, there are good reasons to think that it does not call into question the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
US Economics Update SVB collapse a reminder of financial risks The circumstances of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse are unique enough that it probably won’t trigger a widespread financial contagion. Nevertheless, it is a timely reminder that when the Fed... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank maintains high bar for future rate hikes Despite the renewed hawkishness of central bankers elsewhere, the speech that followed the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement this week suggests that the bar to resume rate hikes remains high. 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
