UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The reacceleration in CPI inflation in February may be enough to tilt the Bank of England towards raising interest rates from 4.00% to 4.25% tomorrow despite the recent turmoil in the global banking... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Near-term softness, long-term optimism The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early... 20th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tightening cycles nearing their end Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth... 20th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Banking sector turmoil – What next after Credit Suisse? 1679320800 Markets remain in a febrile state despite the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse and a joint central bank statement pledge to beef up dollar liquidity support. What will it take to rest
Canada Economics Weekly Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Banking turmoil not (yet) enough to stop Fed hike Although the banking crisis appears to be far from over and new problems could yet emerge over the coming days, we still expect the Fed to push ahead with a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ripples of global banking turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the main impact of the turmoil is likely to feed through via lower commodity prices and tighter external... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Banking situation appears to be stabilising, but risks remain Even if policymakers are successful at putting a firewall around the recent problems in the global banking system, some damage to the UK economy may already have been done. And while we think... 17th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking turmoil clouds ECB rate outlook It is to soon to conclude that euro-zone banks will escape liquidity issues on the back of troubles at US regional banks and Credit Suisse. But there are some reasons for cautious optimism. With that... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of market moves amid the turmoil While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
