Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (September 2024) 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2024) The Reserve Bank of Australia will look past the sharp fall in headline inflation in August, given that the plunge was driven in large part government energy rebates. That said, the fact that... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of September, to 4.7% y/y, supports our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle with another 25bp cut on Thursday. 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed... 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Stimulus package a step in the right direction In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to benefit from lower interest rates With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is... 23rd September 2024 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slower growth and inflation The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth slowed in advanced economies at the end of Q3, particularly in the euro-zone. Meanwhile, weaker activity seems to be weighing on services price pressures... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the loosening cycle really kicks off We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the likely pace and extent of interest rate cuts and their implications now that the US Fed has joined the party. (See a recording here.) This... 23rd September 2024 · 8 mins read
