Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates to stay unchanged in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today and we expect rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year as policymakers look to strike a balance between clamping down on... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: end of the tightening cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 100bps (to 21.0%), but the tone of the statement was less hawkish than after previous meetings. While interest rates will need... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will deliver one final rate hike in May The Reserve Bank of Australia kept open the possibility of further tightening when it decided to leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% today. As such, we do still expect the RBA to deliver one final... 4th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 23) 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) There was plenty to be encouraged by in the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys, with firms’ sales expectations holding up even as labour and other capacity pressures eased considerably... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: nearing the end of the tightening cycle Israel’s central bank raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 4.50%, as expected today and its communications sounded slightly less hawkish than at its previous meeting. Inflation pressures are... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: expected rate cut, but further easing likely now Vietnam’s central bank lowered its benchmark refinancing rate by 50bp, on Friday evening, citing the need to support the economy. The rate cut was in line with our forecast and we now think the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged up in March and points to healthy growth in the sector. This should provide some added source of comfort to the RBI to hike rates again this Thursday. But the... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Temporary factors support strong start to the year The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
