Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y in April, was broad-based and will provide some comfort to officials at the central bank that price pressures are finally easing. This means... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Banking turmoil continues to hamstring the US dollar Despite a bumper week for economic data, currency markets remain in limbo. While the dollar regained some ground today after a(nother) stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, it has been... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep’s inflation concerns, Chile votes (again) We warned a few weeks ago that Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) was too sanguine on inflation risks, but hawkish comments this week show that policymakers’ views on inflation are shifting towards our... 5th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising house prices could delay policy loosening Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation too high for ECB to stop hiking April’s inflation data provided little sign that underlying price pressures are easing. Admittedly, the core rate edged down from 5.7% y/y in March to 5.6%, which was the first decline in 15 months... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of economic weakness, rates to peak at 3.75% Hard data and surveys released this week suggests to us that although the euro-zone economy may again avoid a contraction in Q2, it will remain very weak. Otherwise, we have lowered our forecast for... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Event EM Asia Drop-In: Thailand’s election and near to long-term economic risks 1683792000 The Thai economy is poised for recovery this year, but before that the country faces a contentious general election on 14th May which could be a trigger for fresh political unrest.
BoE Watch Will 4.50% be the peak? With the financial markets and other forecasters having come round to our long-held view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.50%, the real question is whether a 25 basis points rise to 4.50% at the Monetary... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows the pace but the journey goes on The ECB’s decision to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.25% was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the Bank is not pausing, and our view that... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More Norges Bank rate hikes to come The Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.25%, but unlike the Fed we think the tightening cycle in Norway has further to run. That said, we think that inflation will fall more quickly... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom pours cold water on near-term rate cut hopes Brazilian policymakers gave a firm push back against any expectations for imminent monetary easing at yesterday’s central bank meeting, supporting our view that interest rates will be lowered a bit... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
