China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa food prices, SARB resignation, Zambia bond deal Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. In South Africa, the resignation... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t need to talk tough for much longer The Bank of Canada’s insistence that inflationary risks have increased seems at odds with its new forecasts, which show a large degree of economic slack opening up next year. Our view that the Bank is... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Massa vs. Milei, Colombia-China, Chile’s peso worries In Argentina, investors’ nerves have been calmed a little after Sergio Massa, the Peronist presidential candidate who came top in the first round vote, showed signs of moderation. But likely fiscal... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on a high, Riksbank seeking bailout This week’s decision by the ECB to leave interest rates on hold is likely to be the first of many – we think rates will remain at their current levels until the second half of next year. Meanwhile... 27th October 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Eroding trust in data leaves policymakers in a bind In recent months there has been a growing number of question marks over the accuracy of key economic data. As a result, it’s more important than usual to not put too much weight on any one indicator... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably leave yield cap unchanged for now Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may tweak Yield Curve Control yet again at next week’s meeting, but we aren’t convinced the Bank will lift the 10-year yield cap just three months after... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle likely to be over Norges Bank is almost certain to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% next week. And we suspect that, given September’s weak inflation data, it will also soften its language about implementing one... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB policy rates at a plateau Following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, the ECB’s tightening cycle appears to be over. We think that rates will stay at their current levels well into next year. The Governing... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2023) Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. There is no mention of ending PEPP reinvestments early or raising banks’ reserve requirements... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2023) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its peak and paves the way for another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.25... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
