Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: macro stability risks now crystalising The decision by Russia’s central bank to increase its policy rate by 350bp, to 12.00%, at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the challenges that policymakers are now facing to maintain... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Higher food prices pose risk to disinflation process Inflation across Emerging Asia should continue to decline over the coming months. However, the risks are to the upside amid uncertainty over the outlook for food prices. And while we are sticking with... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Interest rate-sensitive activity still holding up Interest rate-sensitive activity in advanced economies has fallen, but is still holding up rather well given how much interest rates have risen. This is partly due to the rebound in auto sales and... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Aug.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the second time in three months, amid growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s economy. A larger-than-usual MLF cut had hinted at a... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2023) The sluggish pace of wage growth in Q2 reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't lift interest rates any higher. 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, we expect global growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. We doubt that another bout of policy stimulus... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Argentina Devaluation and Interest Rate Hike The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports... 11th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
