Europe Economics Update Domestic price pressures easing but from high level The latest euro-zone inflation data, published this morning, will dampen policymakers’ concerns about the strength of domestic price pressures. But with underlying inflation still too high for comfort... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) is disappointing. But we still expect favourable base effects and a fall in utility... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators... 17th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q4 CPI and the case for an early RBA cut 1706670000 There’s a popular view that the RBA won’t start cutting interest rates until later in the second half of this year.
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jan.) Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was probably lingering concerns about the renminbi. This... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
