India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the threat of a new bout of inflation We have argued that most of the inflation battle is already won and fears that “ the last mile will be the hardest” are overdone. But during our central bank online Drop-In session last week, clients... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March looks finely balanced. Our current assumption... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Event US Drop-In: January CPI and the timing of the start of Fed easing 1707836400 What does the recent data flow and Jerome Powell’s pushback mean for the timing of the first Fed rate cut? How quickly and easily will core inflation get back to target?
Africa Rapid Response Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data... 6th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 24) 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will Treasuries keep ignoring oil prices? Oil prices have had only limited impact on US Treasury yields recently, and we suspect that this will remain the case in the next couple of years. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell preaches caution amid jobs bonanza Based on the steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through this week’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
