US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 1709218800 An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: inflation pressures starting to re-surface Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Feb.) Today’s 25bp cut to the 5-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market. On its own it will not revive new home sales. But coupled with efforts to provide increased credit support to... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Activity looking reasonably healthy Signs of healthy growth going into the first quarter support our view that the Bank of Canada will probably wait until June to pivot to rate cuts. 16th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t expect a strong rebound in Germany The German government’s reduction in its forecast for GDP growth from 1.3% to 0.2% brings it closer to our long-held view that the economy will not grow at all this year. But there are growing risks... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK on hold, Malaysia Q4 GDP, election roundup The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, the focus will be on the tone of the statement. We expect the central bank to start... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its policy rate on hold at 16.00% as expected today and we think that inflation pressures will prevent it from cutting interest rates for most of this year. 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
