Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI stands firm in fight against inflation The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in inflation. Indeed, it even raised the possibility of open-market bond... 6th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Oct.) The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone despite the recent easing in headline inflation. There is still a significant risk of the easing... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resurgence in price pressures won’t last The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Falling inflation at odds with ‘higher for longer’ The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threats to slow but not stop EM easing cycle Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: further easing ahead The central bank (CBSL) today cut interest rates by a further 100bps. With inflation low and the economy still very depressed, further easing is likely over the coming months. 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP’s) decision to cut interest rates again today, from 6.00% to 5.75%, suggests that the doves are ruling the roost on the MPC, but we think that interest rates... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
