China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement, Q3 GDP (Adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with both our and consensus expectations. While another hold is likely in January, further... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Faster fall in inflation might not prompt ECB rate cuts In contrast to the past few years, when the risks to the euro-zone inflation outlook have been consistently skewed to the upside, those risks now look more balanced. So in this Focus, we explore the... 12th October 2023 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed FOMC Minutes (19th-20th Sep. Meeting) Despite the ‘higher for longer’ message from the Fed’s updated rate projections last month, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting suggest that officials’ confidence in those forecasts is limited... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (September 2023) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate should fall back again in the coming months, allowing the central bank to... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Renewed inflation worries unlikely to trigger rate hikes Headline inflation has jumped across much of Emerging Asia over the past couple of months on the back of rises in food and fuel prices. This won’t prompt central banks to resume tightening (the... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do higher rates mean for the BoJ’s finances? Any fall in bond prices resulting from higher bond yields won’t affect the BoJ’s balance sheet unless the Bank decides to sell its holdings. By contrast, rising interest payments on commercial banks’... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the Israel-Gaza conflict The attack by Hamas on Israel on Saturday has led to widespread casualties and deaths, and the declaration of war by Israel’s prime minister. From an economic perspective, the experience from the 2014... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America better placed to face rising US yields Spillovers from rising US Treasury yields have hit Latin American financial markets harder than those of most other EMs. But the good news is that current account deficits in the region have narrowed... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
