China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Mounting US tariffs will add to a broader slowdown in exports this year. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but we don... 28th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariffs dampen the mood With the major business surveys for March now published it is clear that economic activity is still growing slowly at best. The good news about the German fiscal stimulus has boosted sentiment but the... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Auto tariffs, Black Sea ceasefire, Israel budget Hungary and Slovakia will be affected more than most if the Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% auto import tariff isn’t reversed. Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation overshoot will trump BoJ’s tariff concerns The new US auto tariffs and the looming reciprocal tariffs due next week pose clear downside risks to Japan’s economic outlook. But policymakers at the Bank of Japan have signalled that those tariffs... 28th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike in May as inflation overshoots While US tariffs are a headwind, the continued acceleration in consumer prices will only heighten concerns among Bank of Japan’s Board members about inflation overshooting its 2% target. As the Bank... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) decision to lower its policy rate by another 50bp cut, to 9.00%, today suggests that growth concerns are rapidly overtaking inflation... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Brightening prospects – more so if Ukraine war ends We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from... 27th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal... 27th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.3% y/y in the first half of March means that, with Copom shrugging off the weakness of the latest activity data and inflation likely to rise... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone money and lending growth continues to rise Data released this morning showed that euro-zone money and lending growth continued to accelerate in February, supporting the case of those at the ECB who would prefer to pause interest rate cuts in... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
