Europe Economics Update Rise in gas prices not yet a big inflation risk The increase in the spot and particularly futures prices of European natural gas in the past few weeks suggests that there is an upside risk to our forecast for euro-zone inflation next year. However... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in gas prices could make the BoE’s task harder In an environment in which firms feel able to pass on higher energy costs in their selling prices, the latest leap in wholesale gas prices poses an upside risk to our forecast for core CPI inflation... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI to below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in August supports our long-held view that the economy will enter a recession. And with weaker activity dampening price pressures, we... 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in July leaves it within touching distance of the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and means that... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Boost from tourism is large this year, but will decline While difficult to quantify, we estimate that the growth of tourism added around 0.3% to euro-zone GDP growth in the first half of 2023. However, we think growth will be much slower in the second half... 22nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Import cost lift to consumer prices has run its course We estimate that firms have now passed on all of the increase in import costs to consumer prices which suggests that inflation will slow sharply over the coming months. 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept... 21st August 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to remain on hold despite inflation rebound While the renewed rise in headline inflation in July seems concerning, a closer look shows disinflationary pressures are still building in key areas. Together with easing demand, that should give the... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish politics, Swiss industrial production This week saw Spain take a tentative step towards forming a new government, but there is a long way to go, and another general election may yet be needed. We also learnt this week that Swiss... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rupee hits an all-time low, new inflation forecasts The rupee dropped to an all-time low of 83.1/$ on Thursday and the depreciation this week may have been larger had the RBI not stepped up its FX intervention. The good news is that the central bank is... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan won’t rush to tighten policy With the economy seemingly running hot and underlying inflation still accelerating, the case for tighter monetary policy looks increasingly compelling. However, we still expect the Bank of Japan to... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
