Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Waiting for Trans Mountain The latest Trans Mountain regulatory hearing will determine whether the pipeline expansion is once again delayed. That would weigh further on the outlook for exports, with external demand already very... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CPI data point to faster rate cuts in parts of CEE The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump faces first test in Iowa Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should provide insight into... 12th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to win the race to get inflation below 2% Even though the next two CPI inflation releases may fuel the narrative that the downward trend in inflation is stalling, we think that inflation in the UK will fall below the 2.0% target in April... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Household consumption will remain weak this year Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few... 12th January 2024 · 10 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution threat, FDI outlook, CPI data Air quality levels in India have been the worst on record in recent weeks and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. That doesn't... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Smaller y/y declines in a food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will continue over the coming quarters. But concerns about low inflation... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
