Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in July to 2.0% y/y in August, the weakest pace of inflation in over a year and we think it will ease further heading into 2024. 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (August) Although the drop in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in August was bigger than the consensus had anticipated, it will not prevent policymakers from raising its key policy rate by another... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Oil prices and the threat to the global inflation outlook 1695128400 The recent surge in oil prices is fuelling concerns about an inflationary resurgence that could upset central bank monetary policy plans. But how worried should investors be?
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The Fed will look through the 0.6% m/m jump in headline CPI in August as it was driven by the recent rally in energy prices. Although core prices also rose by a slightly stronger 0.3% m/m, there is... 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What will it take to bring down wage growth? Although wage growth is clearly falling in the US, the same cannot be said for the UK and euro-zone despite some evidence of labour markets cooling there too. A further fall in inflation expectations... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in August should provide some welcome relief for the RBI. But while we expect inflation to grind lower over the coming months, a severe El Niño and... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (August 2023) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.6% y/y in August won’t prevent the central bank from delivering another 50bp cut, to 12.75% when it meets later this month. But with core services inflation, which... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of Morocco’s earthquake The devastating earthquake that hit Morocco on Friday evening has severe humanitarian consequences, but, from a purely economic standpoint, it should only have a small and short-lived impact on GDP... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) Norway’s inflation rate came in broadly in line with the Norges Bank’s expectations in August, suggesting that policymakers will go ahead with their plan to raise rates from 4.0% to 4.25% next week... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) CPI exited deflation in August, and PPI rose for the first time in nine months. Core inflation remained unchanged after hitting a 11-month high in July, while services inflation rose to its highest in... 11th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y in August is a sign that the economy is bumping up against capacity constraints and we think it will continue to increase over the coming months. The... 8th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
