Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in a little weaker than expected at 4.4% y/y in the first half of September while services inflation remained elevated. Coming alongside strong wage growth and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although EM growth held up well in H1, growth will disappoint over the coming quarters... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government benefitting from higher inflation for now We previously argued that political pressure is one reason to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. However, we suspect the government's stance on inflation has become more ambiguous. While... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI further below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in September suggests the economy may already be in recession. And with weaker activity weighing more heavily on price pressures... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher energy inflation won’t prompt further rate hikes The recent jump in crude oil prices will lift headline inflation in Australia, but we doubt it will have much bearing on underlying inflation. Accordingly, we still think that the RBA's next move will... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Despite the recent rebound in energy prices, the downward trend in core inflation remains firmly intact. And with a growing number of indicators suggesting the labour market is not much tighter than... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The small rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in August partly reflected a fresh pick-up in core price pressures, but we doubt that this will prompt the SARB to restart its... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) The unambiguously good CPI inflation figures for August increase the chances that the Bank of England decides to leave interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but we still think one final 25 basis point... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
