Africa Economics Weekly SA avian flu, Mozambique LNG hopes, CE Spotlight South Africa is in the midst of a severe avian flu outbreak which, coming alongside the effects of loadshedding, has prompted fears of shortages and higher prices for eggs and chicken meat. But this... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September) September’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation was largely due to base effects, but core inflation also came in below expectations. This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal India strike raises risk of power outages Next week's three-day strike by workers at Coal India in dispute over wages raises the risk of power outages across the country, given that coal stocks are already at their lowest level this year... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Sep. Flash Estimate) The sharper-than-expected decline in Polish inflation to 8.2% y/y in September raises the chance of another interest rate cut by the central bank at its meeting next week but, at this point, we think... 29th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ Board members starting to call for tighter policy The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July meeting showed a lively debate about the outlook for prices and monetary policy. While many Board members believe that the Bank will have to keep policy loose... 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to tighten policy as upside risks dominate Data released this week have been a mixed bag, which means that the RBA's policy decision next week will once again come down to the wire. With job vacancies falling and household cash flows starting... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind Brazil’s recent economic resilience? The drivers of Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth seem to be the subject of a heated debate at the central bank – and policymakers’ conclusions will play a big role in determining the pace and... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Leading the shift towards monetary easing Aggregate EM GDP held up better than we had expected over the first half of the year, but we think that a phase of softer growth lies in store over the coming quarters. Our near-term GDP growth... 28th September 2023 · 27 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI and Spain HICP (Sep.) The big drop in CPI inflation across German states in September all but confirms that German and euro-zone HICP inflation also fell sharply this month. While this mainly reflects base effects related... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
