Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September) As a result of September’s weaker-than-expected inflation data from Norway, we now think that Norges Bank’s tightening cycle is over. 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria strike, Kenya debt, Oxford malaria vaccine This week, Nigeria avoided a potentially disruptive workers’ strike after a late government offer of short-term relief measures, but these risk adding to fiscal and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America better placed to face rising US yields Spillovers from rising US Treasury yields have hit Latin American financial markets harder than those of most other EMs. But the good news is that current account deficits in the region have narrowed... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resurgence in price pressures won’t last The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Falling inflation at odds with ‘higher for longer’ The ‘higher for longer’ narrative on interest rates that is baked into market pricing is at odds with evidence of widespread falls in inflation. Higher oil prices mean that fuel inflation will be a... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threats to slow but not stop EM easing cycle Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
