Europe Economics Weekly Surge in gas prices not yet a major inflation risk Even if it is sustained, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices over the past week would add only around 0.1%-pts to our euro-zone inflation forecast for the coming year and would not require... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment growth shows signs of softening Investment growth held up well in the first half of the year but there are signs that it is entering a softer patch. Meanwhile, despite the encouraging inflation data from September, the RBI is... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Above-trend growth won’t be sustained The savings rate bounced back in Q2 as consumption fell and remains above its pre-pandemic average, leaving scope for a renewed rise in spending over the coming quarters. And with inflation set to... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (September) The drop in inflation in September was a little smaller than we and the consensus had anticipated and strengthens the case for the Riksbank to raise rates further. We are therefore sticking with our... 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services inflation staying at its highest in 19 months. We expect... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may (eventually) weigh on UST yields We still think the Fed and investors are too pessimistic about inflation in the US returning to target. We expect a continued fall in both core and headline inflation to push down US Treasury yields... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in September suggests, at face value, that the downward trend in core inflation may be easing. But that’s largely because of a stronger gain in shelter prices... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in September. But the central bank is unlikely to shift away from its hawkish rhetoric for as long as there... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Faster fall in inflation might not prompt ECB rate cuts In contrast to the past few years, when the risks to the euro-zone inflation outlook have been consistently skewed to the upside, those risks now look more balanced. So in this Focus, we explore the... 12th October 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (September 2023) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate should fall back again in the coming months, allowing the central bank to... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Renewed inflation worries unlikely to trigger rate hikes Headline inflation has jumped across much of Emerging Asia over the past couple of months on the back of rises in food and fuel prices. This won’t prompt central banks to resume tightening (the... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up from 37.4% y/y in August to a fresh multi-decade high of 38.0% y/y in September but we think that, even with another devaluation of the pound on the horizon... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
