Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market bolsters case for a final rate hike The decline in Australia's labour force in September reinforces our view that net migration is providing less of a boost to labour supply than many had anticipated. Indeed, NAB's Q3 business survey... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Profit boost from weak yen helps sustain virtuous cycle As we had anticipated, the weak yen isn’t providing a big boost to Japan’s export volumes. Instead, its impact is mainly felt via higher yen revenue and costs. With firms having passed on the full... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2023) EM GDP has held up well this year, but we expect growth to disappoint in the coming quarters. Inflation has surprised to the upside recently, which will delay the start of interest rate cutting cycles... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch From pause to plateau There is little doubt that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged next week, with the deposit rate on hold at 4%. Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won’t... 19th October 2023 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP Breakdown (Sept.) The breakdown of euro-zone HICP inflation data for September, published today, reveals that there was a significant fall in inflation for tourism-related services as the summer season ended. This... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.4% y/y, in September supports our view that the Reserve Bank will only turn towards interest rate cuts from next year. 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) The failure of CPI inflation to fall in September from August’s rate of 6.7% will be a bit of a disappointment to most. But at 6.7% it is still below the 6.9% rate the Bank of England projected back... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q3 Inflation review – Is the RBA done hiking interest rates? 1698202800 Economists from our ANZ and Markets teams held an online briefing following the release of Australian Q3 inflation data.
Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
