Latin America Economics Weekly Copom minutes, Chile’s constitution The minutes to last week's Brazilian central bank meeting revealed that policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures, with inflation expectations now considered to be "unanchored". A... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly State elections, grain scheme extension, food inflation The extension of the free food grain scheme by another five years is clearly geared towards firming up support for the BJP ahead of state elections this month (as well as the general election next... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (October 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks are done tightening The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Oct. 2023) Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is most likely to leave rates on hold in December. 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: October CPI and the Fed rate outlook 1699974000 Shortly after the release of the October CPI report, our US Economics team held a client briefing all about the October report and the inflation and growth outlooks and how they’ll shape Fed policy
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 9th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to the... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) CPI slipped back into deflationary territory last month. This was mostly due to a drop in food inflation. But core inflation declined too, adding to evidence of renewed economic weakness. Nonetheless... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Still plenty of scope for ‘supercore’ inflation to fall The recent stickiness of the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘supercore’ inflation mainly reflects temporary factors rather than ongoing tightness in the labour market. The upshot is that we still expect a... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s next move will be down As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
