Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal? Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the... 25th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s... 25th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals summer rate cut The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and stuck to the argument that a first rate cut is most likely in the summer. An earlier move is still possible if the inflation data are weak in the next few... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest price pressures remain elevated January’s flash PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies ticked up from a very weak pace at the start of 2024. And with price pressures still strong, central banks will probably... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, suggests that the economy has improved, although any increase in GDP in Q1 will probably be minimal. 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow. 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 23) With inflation falling rapidly, risks are tilted towards the RBNZ cutting rates sooner than Q3, as we’re currently predicting. 23rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
