Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in January, but our regional measure rose for the fourth consecutive month and points to...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2023)

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks

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Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?

Africa Data Response

Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards...

29th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Pivoting central bankers must face down the ghost of Arthur Burns

US Economics Focus

Inflation: Mission accomplished?

We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a...

26th January 2024 · 20 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds

The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread...

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards

The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem...

26th January 2024 · 8 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Immaculate disinflation almost complete

It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to...

26th January 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Personal Income & Spending (Dec.)

The December income and spending data confirm that core PCE inflation has been running at an annualised pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now. This reiterates the message that...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Monetary policy tanker slowly turning

The outlook for monetary policy all depends on whether the Bank of Canada is willing to act based on where it thinks shelter inflation is heading, rather than its current rate. The Bank’s...

26th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Misinterpreting the ECB

Most commentators and investors have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting signalled that an April rate cut is a near certainty. We disagree. While an April rate cut is still our base case, the risks...

26th January 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Deflation risks may be on the horizon

Big falls in the Ofgem utility price cap in April and July could mean that CPI inflation falls from 4.0% in December 2023 to just 0.3% by September. If the chances of inflation hovering only a bit...

26th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024)

The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will probably hike in April rather than March

Most of the plunge in inflation in Tokyo in January was driven by one-off factors that the Bank of Japan is stripping out from its inflation gauges. However, the underlying trend in inflation...

26th January 2024 · 6 mins read