Europe Economics Weekly The “greedy beast” may be tamed but not slayed Tentative signs of an increase in services press pressures support the view of ECB policymakers who are concerned about the strength of domestic inflation. We still think that the data will support an... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly End-year bonuses will signal strength of wage pressure The upcoming wage and bonus data for the end of 2023 will provide a check on the temperature of Japan’s labour market. They will show that earnings are still being outstripped by inflation. But what... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Latin America Economics Update What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico? Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The solid rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in January, from 47.1, indicates that the downturn in the sector is fading and appears to justify the Fed’s view that it can wait a little... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
RBA Watch A dovish pivot is on the horizon We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly... 31st January 2024 · 7 mins read
